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India Energy Tracker — Crisis Dashboard

Live impact of the West Asia conflict on India's energy & economy.

Day 138 — the war resumed: the Jun 17 MOU collapsed Jul 8 and US strikes restarted Jul 13. Brent $85.33; rupee ₹96.24. Last updated: --

Today's Energy Snapshot --
Energy Shock Status: HIGH War resumed — the Jun 17 ceasefire MOU collapsed on Jul 8 and US strikes restarted Jul 13, with the naval blockade of Iranian ports back in force. Brent $85.33, up from ~$76 on Jul 10. Delhi petrol/diesel still held at ₹102.12/₹95.20 since May 25.
62/100 HIGH
War resumed — MOU collapsed Jul 8 $674B forex buffer
Hormuz Traffic 3-5 ships / day Down 96% from pre-war 129/day baseline.
India Petrol (Delhi) ₹102.12 +₹2.61 May 25 4th P+D hike; CNG +₹2 May 26 → ₹83.09/kg.
OMC Daily Loss (absorbed) ₹700 Cr/day 14-day avg Brent, net of hike recovery · Gross at spot ₹900 Cr/day
Today's Headline Day 138: BRENT $85.33 (-0.37%) — BREAKOUT PAUSES; OMC ₹850 CR HELD Brent $85.33 (-0.37%); OMC ₹850 Cr at $72 ref.
Brent Crude
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USD/barrel
--
🟡 Volatile
OilPriceAPI
WTI Crude
--
USD/barrel
--
🟡 Volatile
OilPriceAPI
USD / INR
--
Exchange Rate
--
🔴 Above normal
Yahoo Finance
Gold (24K)
--
₹/10g
--
22K: -- · Spot $--/oz
🔴 Above normal
IBJA-style · Yahoo
Natural Gas
--
USD/MMBtu
--
🟢 Stable
Yahoo Finance
India Crude Basket
--
USD/barrel (weighted)
--
🟡 Volatile
PPAC weighted avg

India Power Grid

Loading live demand + generation mix from MERIT INDIA…

Demand met (now)
— GW
—
Total generation
— GW
All fuels combined
Renewables share
—%
Solar + wind + hydro
Thermal share
—%
Coal + lignite base-load
Source: National Power Portal · real-time feed from MERIT INDIA (POSOCO). Refreshes every 2 minutes.

Commodity Price Trends

Brent $85.33 — up from ~$76 on Jul 10 as the war resumed. OMC: ₹0 Cr/day absorbed (14-day avg, net of hike recovery) · ₹800 Cr at spot gross.

Brent--
WTI--
90-Day High--
90-Day Low--
India Basket~$98-102
Pre-conflict (Sep 2025)~$72/bbl
Current spike--
India's pain threshold$80/bbl
OPEC+ target$80-90/bbl
Gold (Current)--
90-Day High--
90-Day Low--
Gold surges as safe-haven asset during conflictFlight to safety
India gold imports (Jan 2026)$12.1B (+192% MoM)
Impact on CADWidens deficit
Nat Gas (Current)--
90-Day High--
90-Day Low--
Qatar Ras Laffan LNG facilityDamaged
India LNG import share~50% of gas consumption
Petronet force majeureActive
Source: Brent, WTI: OilPriceAPI | Gold, Gas: Yahoo Finance | Chart: Yahoo Finance · See 5-year history →

India Fuel Prices

Retail prices held by policy controls + OMC absorption.

Current PricesFuel prices in India are revised daily by oil marketing companies (IOCL, BPCL, HPCL) based on international crude oil prices, exchange rate, and government taxes. Prices shown are the latest published retail rates.
Petrol -- Rs/L Delhi
Diesel -- Rs/L Delhi
LPG -- 14.2 kg
CNG -- Rs/kg Delhi
ATF (Aviation Fuel)--

Other Cities

City Petrol Diesel LPG CNG
All 28 states + 8 UTs · ~788 cities See state-wise petrol & diesel prices →
Source: IOCL / PPAC, Ministry of Petroleum · See 5-year metro revisions →

Oil Import Dependency

89% imported — high exposure to global oil shocks.

89% of crude oil is imported

Top Suppliers

India imports 89% of its crude — 3rd-highest dependency globally. Gulf disruptions hit fuel prices, inflation and the trade deficit directly.
Source: PPAC, Ministry of Petroleum FY2024-25

Strait of Hormuz · Chokepoint

HIGH RISKThe Strait of Hormuz is a 33km-wide chokepoint through which ~21 million barrels of oil pass daily. ~50% of India's crude transited this route pre-conflict. India has since rerouted 70% of imports via alternate sources (Russia, Africa). Any prolonged blockade would still severely disrupt global oil prices.

~40% of India's crude crosses Hormuz. Routes indicative.

21M barrels/day through Hormuz
~50% of India's crude via this route
33 km narrowest width
+300% shipping insurance surge
Google Maps | Route data: EIA

Strategic Petroleum Reserve

-- days of import cover
Capacity5.33 MMT
Current Stock--
Phase II6.5 MMT

Facilities

Visakhapatnam: 1.33 MMT
Mangaluru: 1.50 MMT
Padur: 2.50 MMT

How India Compares

🇮🇳 India
9.5 days
🇰🇷 S. Korea
~49 days*
🇨🇳 China
~90+ days
🇯🇵 Japan
~124 days*
🇺🇸 USA
~125 days
IEA Minimum
90 days

IEA mandates 90 days of net import cover for member countries. India's SPR covers only 9.5 days at full capacity (~6 days at current 64% fill) — the lowest among major oil importers. *Post Mar 2026 IEA emergency release.

Source: ISPRL, IEA, EIA, BusinessToday, S&P Global

Crisis Timeline

LIVE
Sources: Al Jazeera, CNN, ACLED, The Core, PM India, Business Standard

Frequently Asked Questions

Updated daily

Quick answers on the West Asia conflict's impact on India's energy markets.

What is the current Brent crude oil price during India's energy crisis?

Brent crude is trading at $85.33 on Jul 16, 2026, down $0.32 (-0.37%) — a mild pullback after a three-session breakout that added $12.01 from Friday's $73.74 close. The $72 CCEA reference remains $13.33 below spot.

How much are Indian Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) losing daily?

The OMC daily under-recovery meter stands at ₹850 Cr on Jul 16, 2026 — third consecutive ₹850-Cr session, per the (Brent-72)×62.5 formula. Cumulative 137-day under-recovery is now approximately ₹1.98 lakh-Cr.

Is the Strait of Hormuz still blocked?

Yes. Day 138 marks the sixty-fifth consecutive baseline session at 3 vessels/24-hr, versus a 129/day pre-war run-rate — roughly a 97.7% reduction. Aramco's ~100M bbls/week supply-loss signal remains unrevised.

What is the impact on petrol, diesel, and LPG prices in India?

Four P+D hikes + two CNG hikes in 12 days. Delhi petrol ₹94.77 → ₹102.12, diesel ₹87.67 → ₹95.20 (May 15 +₹3, May 19 +~90p, May 23 +87p, May 25 +₹2.61 — steepest yet). CNG ₹77.09 → ₹83.09 (May 15 +₹2, May 23 +₹1, May 26 +₹2 IGL bulletin). LPG ₹913 held through all six. Triggers: fortnightly-average crude (OMCs), input gas costs + USD (IGL). Fuel Watch →

How many Indians are at risk in the Gulf region?

9M+ Indians in the Gulf (UAE 3.5M, Saudi 2.6M + others). 9.84 lakh passengers returned from West Asia (MEA, Apr 15) — cumulative returns incl. routine travel, not solely evacuees. May 4: 3 Indians wounded in Iran drone strike at Fujairah — first Iran-war injuries inside UAE.

When did the 2026 West Asia conflict begin?

The war began Feb 28, 2026 with the US-Israel 'Operation Epic Fury'. Today, Jul 16, 2026, is Day 138. A US-Iran ceasefire MOU signed Jun 17 collapsed on Jul 8 after attacks by both sides — Trump declared it 'over' — and US strikes resumed on Jul 13, with CENTCOM's naval blockade of Iranian ports restored.

What is India's daily oil import bill during the war?

~$17.5B/mo at Brent ~$100 (vs pre-war ~$14.2B). India imports 89% of its crude — 3rd-highest dependency globally. Top supplier: Russia 35%, Iraq 14%, USA 12%.

Has the US-Iran ceasefire been signed?

No final peace deal — and the interim one is dead. The Jun 17 MOU collapsed on Jul 8 and the war resumed. Indirect US-Iran talks in Doha (Jun 30 - Jul 2) stalled over the Strait of Hormuz: Iran claims joint sovereignty with Oman and wants transit tolls, while Washington argues an international waterway needs Gulf endorsement. Iran cites 'Clause 13' to bar final-deal talks until the US implements the interim terms.

Sources: Live data from OilPriceAPI, Yahoo Finance, RBI, PPAC. Editorial from CNBC, Al Jazeera, Reuters, BBC, NY Times, Fortune, CBS News. Methodology →

What Happens Next?

Scenarios for further oil price rises or supply shocks.

Oil Shock: What If?

Interactive

Simulate how Brent moves hit India's fuel costs and economy.

$105
per barrel
$70 $200
CRISIS
What happens in Delhi if oil hits $105/barrel?
Impact on Delhi
National Impact
Source: PPAC, Emkay elasticity estimates, RBI. Petrol/diesel are market-linked estimates — actual retail prices are frozen. Looking back? See the historical version of this — same elasticity applied to 4 years of real Brent × USD/INR data.
New · editorial reconstruction

5-Year Historical View: What Consumers Paid vs What They Would Have Paid

5 years of pump prices vs the oil-shock counterfactual — every value sourced.

Open →

What This Means for India Right Now

Why It Matters India imports 87% of its crude oil. When Brent price rises and the rupee weakens simultaneously, the actual cost to India multiplies, driving up petrol, diesel, LPG, fertilizer prices, widening the trade deficit, and fuelling inflation. This calculator shows that real-time compounding effect.

India's Actual Crude Basket (Weighted by Import Share)

Russian Urals 36% -- Discount narrowed to ~$5
Iraqi Basrah 20% -- ~$3-5 below Brent
Saudi Arab Light 15% -- ~$1-2 below Brent
UAE Murban 7% -- Near Brent parity
Others 22% -- Avg benchmark price
India Basket (Wtd Avg)
--
USD/bbl
USD/INR
--
Exchange Rate
Rupee Cost of Crude
--
INR/barrel (actual)
Daily Import Cost
--
Crore INR/day
Daily Oil Consumption
5.9M bbl/day
India is world's 3rd largest oil consumer
EIA / PPAC
Domestic Production
0.59M bbl/day
Only ~10% of demand met domestically
DGH / ONGC
Govt Subsidy Burden
₹1.71L Cr
Fertilizer subsidy FY27 (Union Budget)
Union Budget FY27
Diesel → Food Inflation
Every $10/bbl rise adds ~1.5% to food CPI via transport & farm costs
RBI estimates
Forex Reserve Burn
~$3-5B/mo
RBI selling reserves to defend rupee at 85-87 level
RBI weekly data
OPEC+ Output
Cutting
Production cuts extended, tightening global supply
OPEC Secretariat

Economic Impact on India

Fertilizer Supply Crisis

DisruptedWest Asia conflict has disrupted ammonia and phosphate shipping routes from Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. Delivery delays of 3-4 weeks are increasing landed costs and threatening Kharif season input availability for Indian farmers.
Urea
--
USD/t
--
DAP
--
USD/t
--
MOP
--
USD/t
--

Agriculture Impact

Fertilizer Subsidy FY26--
Import Cost Increase--

Supply Chain & Food Impact

India's Fertilizer Import Share~27%
Key Import Sources at RiskOman, Saudi, Iran
Kharif Crop Input Cost Rise (est.)+12-18%
Food Inflation (CFPI, Feb 2026)+3.47% YoY
MSP Revision PressureHigh
Fertilizer needs natural gas. Higher energy prices → higher fertilizer cost → higher food prices for 1.4B Indians.
Source: World Bank / Dept. of Fertilizers / MOSPI (CFPI Feb 2026)

Economic Impact on India

CAD--% of GDP
CPI Inflation--YoY
Forex Reserves--Bn USD
Oil Import Bill--Bn USD/mo

Stock Market

NIFTY 50 -- --
SENSEX -- --

Key Oil & Gas Stocks

ONGC----
Reliance----
IOC----
BPCL----

Fiscal Pressure

Excise Cut Revenue Loss₹1.55L Cr/yr
Fiscal Deficit Target FY274.3% of GDP
RBI Repo Rate (5.25%)Paused
Every $10/bbl rise widens India's CAD by ~0.3% of GDP (ICRA) and adds $13-14B to the net oil bill. Excise cut costs ₹1.55L Cr/yr in revenue.
Source: Yahoo Finance (^NSEI, ^BSESN) | RBI, MOSPI, Budget FY27

Human & Global Impact

War CasualtiesCasualty figures are contested and vary by source (HRANA, IFRC, government claims). We present ranges from multiple credible sources. Figures update as new reports are verified.

-- estimated killed across all parties Day -- of conflict

India's Response

UN Vote--
Citizens Evacuated--
Diplomatic Stance--
Sources: Loading...

Impact on Indian Diaspora

At RiskOver 9 million Indians work in GCC countries. The conflict endangers safety and employment, especially blue-collar workers in construction, hospitality, and oil services.
-- Indians in Gulf at risk

Remittances at Risk

Gulf Remittances (FY25)--
Total India Remittances--
Gulf Share--
Remittance as % of GDP--
Most Affected States--
Risk if 6-mo Conflict--
Sources: Loading...