India fuel watch

Tracking the impact of the West Asia conflict on India's petrol, diesel, LPG prices, oil marketing companies, and 1 lakh+ fuel outlets.

Fuel prices remain stable in India despite rising global oil prices as government policy and OMC margin absorption cushion pump prices.

Retail fuel prices in India respond gradually to global crude movements due to taxes, refinery margins and policy decisions.

Market indicators

Brent Crude
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USD/barrel
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WTI Crude
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USD/barrel
--
USD / INR
--
Exchange Rate
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Gold (24K)
--
₹/10g
--
Natural Gas
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USD/MMBtu
--
Source: OilPriceAPI (Brent, WTI), Yahoo Finance (Gold, Gas, Forex)

OMC loss meter

HIGH Margin Pressure
Petrol Under-recovery -- per litre
Diesel Under-recovery -- per litre
Daily OMC Loss -- Petrol + Diesel + LPG combined

Excise duty cut (Mar 27)

Petrol Excise----
Diesel Excise----
Fiscal cost of tax cut--
% of OMC losses offset--
Source: PIB, Nomura

OMC stock impact

Moody's WarningMargin & cash-flow pressure
Nayara (private) hike+₹5.30 petrol, +₹3 diesel

Who absorbs the fuel shock?

Consumers
Pump prices stable
No retail hike since Apr 2022. Shielded by govt policy.
Government
Excise cut ₹10/L
Fiscal cost ₹1.55L Cr/yr. Offsets 30-40% of OMC losses.
OMCs
₹2,450 Cr/day loss
IOC, BPCL, HPCL absorb the gap. Stock prices down 15-23%.

Supply status across India

--Retail outlets
--Days of stock
NoRationing ordered
ActiveOvernight depots

India LPG supply situation

Domestic LPG (14.2 kg)

Delivery delays7-45 days
Black market premiumUp to ₹4,000
Ujjwala refill gap45 days min
Hike (Mar 7)+₹60/cylinder
Import dependency~60%
Import sources--
New connections--

Commercial LPG (19 kg) Hiked May 1

May 1 hike--
Apr 1 hike+₹195-218
Mar 4 hike+₹114.50
3 hikes since war began+₹1,303 total (~+62%)
OMC under-recovery--
ImpactRestaurants, hotels, street vendors
Production--
Requirement--

Global petrol prices (₹ per litre)

Comparison of petrol prices across major economies. India's four-year price freeze ended on May 15, 2026 when public-sector OMCs raised petrol +₹3/L.

# Country Price per litre ₹/L
1HK Hong Kong₹386
2DE Germany₹215
4KR South Korea₹122
5JP Japan₹111
6BR Brazil₹110
7PK Pakistan₹110
8CN China₹103
9US USA₹100
10IN India (Delhi) +87p May 19₹98.64
11BD Bangladesh₹89
12SA Saudi Arabia₹54
Source: GlobalPetrolPrices, EIA, OGRA, Fuel Finder UK, Goodreturns. India: ₹97.77 effective May 15, 2026 (post-hike). Other countries: May 2026 spot. ₹ equivalent at current exchange rates.

War impact: pre-war vs now

How petrol prices changed across major economies since the West Asia conflict began

Country Now (₹/L) Pre-war Change Tax Pricing Notes
Hong Kong₹300–340₹290+33%~22%Market drivenHigh margins + land costs
Germany₹200–220₹170+26%~55–60%Tax regulatedEnergy tax + CO₂ + VAT
UK₹175–195₹152+19%~60%Tax drivenFuel duty + 20% VAT
South Korea₹120–140₹100+22%~40%Tax adjustedTemp fuel tax reductions
Brazil₹110–130₹93+18%~40%Partial marketPetrobras pricing
Japan₹110–125₹100+11%~45%Subsidy stabilisedGovt subsidies to refiners
China₹100–120₹86+20%~35%Pricing bandNDRC crude price window
Pakistan₹105–115₹82+34%~30%Govt controlledPKR 366/L (OGRA Apr '26)
USA₹95–105₹71+42%~15%Market driven$4.06/gal avg (AAA Apr '26)
India (Delhi)₹97.77₹94.77+3.2%~55%AdministeredFreeze ended May 15, 2026 — first hike in 4 years
Bangladesh₹85–95₹84+6%~25%Semi regulatedAuto-pricing formula
Saudi Arabia₹50–58₹53+2%~10%SubsidizedSAR 2.18/L (Aramco)
Current prices (May 2026) from GlobalPetrolPrices, EIA, OGRA, Fuel Finder UK. Pre-war prices (Sep 2025, Brent ~$72/bbl) from GlobalPetrolPrices historical data. All converted to ₹/litre at prevailing exchange rates. % change reflects each country's policy response — tax cuts, subsidies, price freezes, or full pass-through. Tax data from Tax Foundation, RAC Foundation, PPAC, Kwiksure. India's ₹97.77 from IOCL — effective May 15, 2026, after the first retail hike in four years. The +3.2% understates the absorbed shock — OMCs ate the bulk of the crude move; the consumer share is just the ₹3/L pass-through.

Tax breakdown by state

Central excise (post Mar 27 cut)

Petrol: Base excise--
Petrol: SAED--
Petrol: Total central tax--
Diesel: Base excise--
Diesel: SAED--
Diesel: Total central tax--

Why prices differ by state

Retail fuel prices = Base price + Central excise + State VAT + Dealer commission. Central excise is uniform across India, but each state sets its own VAT rate. This is why Mumbai petrol costs ₹103.54 while Delhi pays ₹94.77.

Tax share in retail price40-55%
Highest VAT state (petrol)Telangana (35.2%)
Lowest VAT state (petrol)A&N Islands (1%)

State-wise VAT on petrol and diesel

StatePetrol VATDiesel VAT
Source: ClearTax, PPAC (as of Apr 2025). State VAT rates unchanged after central excise cut.

Consumer impact calculator

See how much more you'd pay if fuel prices were market-linked (compared to current frozen prices).

Note: Retail fuel prices haven't changed, but OMCs are absorbing the loss. If prices were market-linked, this is what you'd pay. Source: PPAC, RBI

Fuel policy & supply timeline

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