Historical data & scenario analysis
Five years of verified crude, rupee & Delhi pump-price data — every value sourced. 2026 scenario overlay is clearly marked.
Brent crude vs USD/INR
The price difference — what you paid vs what you'd have paid
Anchor: May 22, 2022 — Brent $112.16 × USD/INR ₹77.82 = ₹8,728/bbl crude-in-INR; Delhi petrol ₹96.72/L after the ₹8/L excise cut. Each subsequent day's market-linked price = anchor + (crude-in-INR change × ₹0.00663/L per ₹/bbl) — the elasticity from the main dashboard's Oil Shock calculator. Chart clamps to May 22, 2022 onwards and holds the post-cut tax stack constant. Editorial reconstruction, not an official OMC under-recovery number — see Methodology below for full sourcing.
India fuel — 6 metros
India crude basket — FY averages
Why Indian fuel doesn't move with global oil
Retail petrol and diesel in India rise faster than they fall. When global crude spikes, Oil Marketing Companies and the Centre's excise duty cushion the consumer initially — then quietly pass it through. When crude falls, that cushion is reclaimed as tax revenue or OMC margin, not consumer relief. The numbers below tell that story across the date range you've selected.
All deltas are computed directly from the verified data above. No interpolation. Change the date range filter to see this asymmetry over different windows — the 2020 COVID crash, the 2022 Russia-Ukraine spike, and the 22-month freeze that followed each tell different chapters.
India fuel-price history — common questions
Why were India's fuel prices frozen from May 2022 to May 2026?
On May 22, 2022 the Centre cut petrol excise by ₹8/L and diesel by ₹6/L. From that day onward OMCs (IOCL/BPCL/HPCL) held Delhi pump prices at ₹96.72 petrol and ₹89.62 diesel — eventually drifting to ₹94.77 / ₹87.67 — even as Brent crude swung between $70 and $130/bbl. The under-recovery was absorbed by OMCs (estimated cumulative ~₹1.42 lakh-Cr across the four years) and offset by foregone excise and state-VAT revenue. The freeze ended on May 15, 2026 with the first revision in four years.
What is the 'oil-shock counterfactual' shown on this page?
It's a modelled series: what Delhi petrol would have cost if every subsequent rupee of Brent × USD-INR movement had passed through to the pump from the May 22, 2022 anchor. Methodology: start at parity (₹96.72 petrol with Brent $112 × ₹77.82), then apply the historical refinery-to-retail elasticity (~₹0.625 pump-impact per $1/bbl Brent move + the rupee multiplier) day by day. The shaded area between the counterfactual line and actual retail is the part of the crude move that did not reach the pump — held back by OMC under-recovery and excise/VAT foregone.
When did the May 2022 frozen-pump regime end?
The petrol+diesel freeze ended in four steps over 11 days; IGL separately revised CNG four times in the same window. May 15, 2026: Delhi petrol +₹3 (₹94.77 → ₹97.77), diesel +₹3, CNG +₹2/kg — first revision since the May-2022 excise cut. May 19: petrol +~₹0.87, diesel +~₹0.91 (CNG held). May 23: petrol +₹0.87 to ₹99.51, diesel +₹0.91 to ₹92.49, CNG +₹1. May 25: petrol +₹2.61 to ₹102.12, diesel +₹2.71 to ₹95.20 — steepest single-day P+D move yet. May 26: IGL CNG +₹2 to ₹83.09/kg for Delhi NCR; petrol/diesel held. Cumulative since May 15: petrol +₹7.35, diesel +₹7.53, CNG +₹6. Domestic 14.2 kg LPG stayed at ₹913 throughout.
Why does this chart start in May 2021?
Pre-May-2022, OMCs operated under daily-revision rules — pump prices changed every morning with international crude moves. Including that era in a 'freeze vs counterfactual' comparison would muddle the story. The anchor at May 22, 2022 (the Centre's ₹8/L excise cut) is the right starting point because that is when the political-consensus freeze began and pass-through stopped. Pre-anchor data is excluded for visual clarity, not because it doesn't exist.