India Energy Tracker — Crisis dashboard

Brent crude is trading at $111.07/barrel (+0.97%, +$1.07) on the ICE July contract as of the Asia session May 20, 2026. WTI is at $103.84 (+1.04%). Prices have held above $110 through the EU 24-tanker sanctions vote and remain at war-cycle elevated levels, with the formula-driven OMC daily under-recovery meter at ₹2,450 Cr/day.

Indian public-sector oil marketers (IOC, BPCL, HPCL) are losing approximately ₹2,450 Cr/day at the May 20 Brent print of $111.07 — ₹100 Cr/day above the $109.88 level cited Tuesday as justification for the second retail hike in four days. The ₹30,000 Cr CCEA compensation envelope is being stress-tested at a $115 Brent assumption per a Petroleum Ministry official quoted by CNBC-TV18.

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed by Iran since March 1, 2026 — Day 81 of the war as of May 20. Tanker traffic ticked to 4 vessels/24-hr in the latest TankerTrackers window — the first uptick in nine sessions — versus the pre-war baseline of 129/day (~97% reduction). Analysts attribute the uptick to two pre-cleared Iraqi-origin VLCCs rather than an Iranian posture shift.

Two retail hikes in four days. On May 15, 2026 the four-year frozen-pump regime ended: Delhi petrol ₹94.77 → ₹97.77 (+₹3), diesel ₹87.67 → ₹90.67 (+₹3), CNG ₹77.09 → ₹79.09 (+₹2). On May 19, 2026 OMCs revised again: petrol +87-99 paise, diesel +91-99 paise across the six metros — Delhi petrol now ₹98.64, diesel ₹91.58. CNG and 14.2kg LPG (₹913) held this revision. The May-19 trigger: Brent past $110, US Navy posture around Hormuz, and the EU sanctions package effective June 2. Post-hike OMC absorption ~₹2,350 Cr/day; cumulative ~₹1.53 lakh-Cr stays. Diesel container restrictions remain active in UP, Maharashtra, MP, Bihar, Jharkhand, and the Northeast. Fuel Watch →

Approximately 9 million+ Indian nationals live and work in the Gulf — UAE (3.5M), Saudi Arabia (2.6M), Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain. Of these, 375,000+ have been evacuated since the war began Feb 28, 2026. On May 4, 3 Indian nationals were wounded at the Fujairah oil zone in an Iran drone strike — the first confirmed Iran-war injuries to Indians inside UAE.

The war began February 28, 2026 with US-Israel 'Operation Epic Fury' — 900 strikes in 12 hours that killed Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei. Iran responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz on March 1. May 20, 2026 is Day 81 (11 weeks, 4 days). The April 8 ceasefire is in 'massive life support' per President Trump's May 12 framing; Iran has linked any Hormuz de-escalation to full withdrawal of the EU's 24-tanker sanctions package, a demand European diplomats describe as a non-starter.

India's monthly oil import bill stands at $17.5 billion at Brent ~$100/bbl, up from a pre-war average of ~$14.2 billion. India imports 89% of its crude — the third-highest dependency among major economies. Top suppliers: Russia 35%, Iraq 14%, USA 12%, Africa 12%, Saudi Arabia 10%, Americas 10%, UAE 4%, Kuwait 3%.

The April 8 ceasefire architecture remains technically in force but functionally suspended. The 14-point MoU collapsed May 11; Pakistan back-channel paused; Qatar-mediated Doha track yielded a 'constructive, no breakthrough' readout May 19. Iran's May 20 'act of economic war' framing of the EU package and its formal linkage of Hormuz de-escalation to package withdrawal have hardened the diplomatic deadlock further. A third Doha round is flagged for May 26-27.